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Has a recovery begun for the building renovation market? A study by Harvard University Joint Center for Housing Studies seems to offer a hopeful sign. Skepticism is warranted, of course. The same "experts" and professional cheerleaders who told us there was no recession in 2007 have now been joyfully declaring it over for some time. They manage to spin this happy news from obscure and out of context metrics that have no relation to the jobs and business activity that the rest of us depend on. That is why this study caught my attention; it is based on actual trends in real business activity. To quote from their press release:
"Home improvement spending will recover this year, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) released today by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The LIRA suggests annual spending will accelerate, with nearly five percent growth in 2010."
We'll see!! The press release can be found here at http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/media/lira/index.html and contains a useful graph as well as downloadable historic trends data.